EVENING UPDATE,  FEBRUARY 1,  2008

•   Planning that trip to Europe?  You might want to read this before strolling the beer halls of the old Reich.  Germany has turned down our request for more troops for Afghanistan.  Even though the Fatherland's current chancellor, Angela Merkel, is pro-American, she's dealing with government partners whose slogan seems to be, "Today Germany, tomorrow...well, Germany."  The German defense minister said:

"The trial in Afghanistan cannot be won if we only see the military aspect."

No, Herr Minister.  But the military aspect must be won, and you're not pulling your load.  And you know, Herr Minister, Americans really can do without those German cars.  Love those Hondas.  And Corvettes.

•   By contrast, Poland has agreed in principle to join the US-developed missile-defense system.  But we had to make some concessions that the previous Polish government hadn't asked for.  Okay, as long as we get the deal.  But many in Europe still don't understand that missile defense is in their interest, to the extent that they know their interest, which would be rare for Europe.  See the last hundred years or so.

•   Politico is reporting that John McCain has a new ad stressing his conservative credentials.  Clearly, he has work to do in convincing the base of his party that he believes, more or less, what they do.  I think he can.  He may not convince the base of the base to send him roses, but all he needs is for those reluctant warriors to go, or be dragged, to the polls on election day. 

He can do that by scaring them:  Just print the ages of the liberal Supreme Court justices, and ask who the ultras would want choosing their replacements, McCain or Obama, or McCain or Clinton.  If that doesn't get them going, better send the hearses.

Any candidate's problems with the base of his (or her) party can be critical.  In 1968, Hubert Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon in large part because the cotton-only-no-polyester crowd in the Democratic Party stayed home to protest Humphrey's support of the Vietnam War.  Great move.  They got Nixon, who also supported the war, but some liberals have trouble with multiple-choice tests.

•   McCain does seem to be making progress toward uniting his party.  He's picking up endorsements from moderates, and, most important in the days before Super Tuesday, conservatives.  The heart of the story:

His campaign said he notched endorsements from Texas Gov. Rick Perry, both of Georgia's U.S. senators and Kirby Wilbur, a top-10 conservative radio talk-show host and an American Conservative Union board member. And senior McCain adviser Charlie Black said he thinks some of Mr. McCain's prominent talk-radio antagonists, who reach millions of Republican voters, are coming around.

"Rush Limbaugh seemed to back off his criticism of John a bit today — at least he didn't spend his whole show bashing McCain," Mr. Black said.

That means Mr. McCain made headway on both ends of the Republican political spectrum heading into next week's primaries in more than 20 states.

If McCain sweeps on Tuesday, I can't see how Romney can make a case.  Huckabee could try to stay in to provide a contrast, but the networks might refuse to cover any more debates. 

Speaking of Huckabee, he's been mentioned as a possible veep choice for McCain, but I don't think McCain needs him.  The man he needs is Charlie Crist, the very popular governor of Florida, a man who can deliver that key state.  He seems to have delivered it last week after he endorsed McCain in the Florida primary.

•   McCain better keep this secret from the base, but some in Hollywood are sweet on him.  It isn't love.  From my own experience in Hollywood, there's less love there than there is in Washington.  It's kind of like plus.  The key quote:

The entertainment actuators like McCain for much the same reason they like Barack Obama: They both have a good story, and they're "authentic." (And Hollywood, being the phoniest place in the world, loves authenticity.)

In fact, Hollywood's affection for Obama is one of the things McCain has going for him here this time around.

Some industry politicos are angry with the Clintons for questioning Obama's experience and character in ways that many people found racially insensitive, according to one longtime Democratic activist and high-level Hollywood insider. "I've talked to three people who said that if it's Hillary against McCain in the general election, they might vote for McCain," said the insider, who asked not to be identified.

And coming back to McCain wouldn't be that much of a stretch. People here genuinely like him, although they don't necessary agree with him politically. And the industry is famous for breaking party ranks for the right candidate. (Look at Ronald Reagan -- and Arnold.) If McCain comes out strong after Super Tuesday, he'll find an audience in Tinseltown.

I don't think, though, that we'll see Jane Fonda at any McCain rallies.  And Susan Sarandon sent regrets, wrapped inside an explosive.

 
•   On the Obama watch:   We learn that Oprah Winfrey is going out to L.A. to campaign for Obama.  I honestly don't know how this is going to play.  We are talking about the presidency, and, as decision time nears, voters tend to get more and more serious.  Oprah is a talk-show host, and the campaign isn't about new ways to wear miniskirts.  From the story:

It has been nearly two months since Ms. Winfrey made her debut on the trail, drawing tens of thousands of people to arenas in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Mr. Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, which aides attribute to the attention stirred by Ms. Winfrey. (Particularly the landslide South Carolina victory.)

If that's true, maybe Osama bin Laden is right when he says we're decadent.

•   More on the Obama watch:  The Washington Times, not beholden to liberal trendiness, has joined the much-need examination of Obama's record that has eluded many other news outlets closer to Georgetown or Manhattan.  The lead:

Candidate Barack Obama frequently promises to soar above partisan politics. But the theatrics of such declarations keep bumping into the reality of Mr. Obama's left-liberal record in Washington and the left-liberal record in Illinois state politics which preceded it.

That's a critical point.  How can a man so far out on the left - judged, as I noted this morning, the most liberal senator - actually unite a country where conservative values are so strong?  He can't, unless he has some technique he's kept secret.

•   We're reminded of the real world by this story reporting that Pakistan has test-fired a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.  A statement by the country's new army chief of staff said that Pakistan's armed forces are a "highly professional, motivated and well trained force" and are "capable of safeguarding and securing nuclear assets against all categories of threat."

It's that last part that keeps me up nights, when I'm not worrying about Hillary re-measuring the drapes in the Oval Office.  The statement is nonsense.  One military coup, or a well-placed assassin's bullet, and all that nuclear security goes down the drain.   

•   This just in.  Scientists in New Zealand and Japan have created a tear-free onion.  No more tears.  The report tells us:

The discovery could signal an end to one of cooking's eternal puzzles: why does cutting up a simple onion sting the eyes and trigger teardrops?

I've been wondering for years. 

This also means an end to one of the classic sympathy grabbers - rubbing an onion near your eyes to look like you've been crying.  I guess we have to accept this as collateral damage.

•   From progress to tragedy.  CBS reporter Lesley Stahl's apartment has been burglarized.  I'll wait while you call your friends to tell them.  The hard, cruel facts:

The brazen bandit stole several diamond watches, a pearl necklace, earrings, and gold and silver necklaces in the heist last Friday, cops said.

Okay.  How soon will it be on "60 Minutes"?  How soon will we hear Lesley say:

I was shocked.  I felt violated.  But I soon got to know the man who did it, and I came to understand his life, his dreams, his fears.  Is prison really the place for a man like this?  Are my little trinkets worth his freedom?  I'm anguishing over it.

Don't bet on that, friends.  Don't bet on it.

See you tomorrow.

Posted at 6:37 p.m. EST on February 1, 2008.